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Blog Articles

What will 2012 bring? The New Zealand Dollar, Housing and Stockmarket

16 Jan 2012 14:25
What will 2012 bring? 2011 was a year where not much happened all round – the NZ stockmarket (main index), housing market, and currency were virtually flat year-on-year. We have entered the age of deleveraging and also a huge population bulge will be retiring which will start to have a drag on house prices and perhaps even stocks in the coming years. There are huge opposing forces and uncertainties in the global enivornment, especially surrouding the Euro area

2011 - the year in hindsight

16 Jan 2012 14:19
2011 – The year in review. Looking back a year on it’s interesting to see how my predictions actually went. Unfortunately I have not had much time for this blog in the last year due to extreme busyness at work and in my personal life too. Here’s a wrap-up of how my predictions actually went. The NZD (New Zealand Dollar) The NZD/USD had a volatile year, and went much higher than I predicted, but ended up in the range that I thought the currency would trade in over the year

What will 2011 bring?

10 Jan 2011 15:31
A quick recap of 2010 My predictions for 2010 were pretty much on the mark. The NZ dollar traded mostly in a range between 70-75c to the USD, with the odd foray higher and lower, for short periods of time. The equity markets rallied early in the year then entered a sizeable correction during the Northern Hemisphere's summer.  The housing market was flat to slighty down. Overall it was a lacklustre year with no real gains being made or losses either for that matter

NZ house prices follow classic bubble popping signs

28 Jun 2010 12:14
When bubbles burst they follow a familiar pattern The bursting of every asset bubble follows classic signs - as postulated by Dr John Paul Rodrique and shown in the illustration below. This has a lot in common with the typical "ABC" correction pattern which is described in Elliot Wave theory

NZ dollar still locked in a downtrend

16 Jun 2010 12:53
The S&P500 has been rallying the past 2 days and yet despite the rate rise from the central bank the NZD has been unable to rally past the 70c mark and hold its ground. As I wrote in my previous articles, the NZD broke its correlation with the US stock market last October (2009) and then since then has been stuck in a volatile downwards sloping channel. The NZ dollar is still stuck in its downwards trending channel with the upper channel line presently at around 71c to the USD
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